Another edition of one of the most entertaining tournaments in StarCraft is about to begin as the HomeStory Cup is back.
This year’s roster contains a number of the world’s current top players and former StarCraft legends, as well as complete newbies to the international scene in what promises to be an exciting battle for a share of the $25,000 prize pool.
Let’s take a look group by group at how the event could play out.
| Group A | |
| 1. | FireCake |
| 2. | TOP |
| 3. | TLO |
| 4. | NightEnD |
FireCake (#15 in Europe) will most likely secure one of the top two spots in this group. FireCake has been quite impressive lately and his defensive Zerg style managed to secure third place in the Winter DreamHack, which was the first premium tournament in LotV.
TLO also impressed in the same tournament, where he managed to progress from the group of death, finishing ahead of players such as Lilbow and Bunny. However, his run ended ingloriously against puCK, losing 3-0. He will have to play his best game to go through here.
TOP might not be a top Korean player (#72 in South Korea), but as a former GSL finalist, he is more than capable of contesting for first place. He will certainly be happy that there are no other Terrans in the group due to his 31.91% win rate versus Terran in his most recent matches.
NightEnD (#46 in Europe) hasn’t been in good form lately (with a win rate of 51.16%), but the Romanian has shown in the past that he can do amazing things if he gets in the right mood.
| Group B | |
| 1. | Nerchio |
| 2. | MarineLorD |
| 3. | MaNa |
| 4. | HuK |
Group B can be considered the group of death as every player is capable of progressing from it. Nerchio (#2 in Europe) is arguably the best European Zerg right now and has been crushing opponents (74% win rate in almost 400 games). At the last DreamHack, he managed to achieve 5-6th place. Without a strong Korean presence, he is rightly considered one of the favourites to win this tournament overall.
MarineLorD is also at the very top of the European elite (#1 in Europe) and is capable of beating but also losing to anyone. His weakest matchup is TvT and luckily for him, there are no other Terrans in the group (he has a 53.92% win rate against Terran).
MaNa (#22 in Europe) is famous for his rather unorthodox style and is capable of surprising anyone. However, he pulled the short straw and got into the one group with his arch nemesis and compatriot Nerchio. MaNa has struggled against Nerchio with a success rate of only 23.53% in 34 matches (8-26). The last two matches in 2015 were both won by Nerchio and form suggests this will repeat itself here.
HuK (#53 in Europe) didn’t particularly impress in the DreamHack, where he was eliminated in the group stages. Despite this, the former GSL participant will certainly not go down easily and is a contender to progress here.
| Group C | |
| 1. | ShoWTimE |
| 2. | Zanster |
| 3. | Dayshy |
| 4. | Guru |
The clear favourite in this group is the German Protoss ShoWTimE (#3 in Europe), who will most likely sweep away the opposition to claim first place. His dominant play in the winter DreamHack was stopped by the finalist and top Korean player PartinG (1-3). On his way to fourth place, he trampled over Elazer (3-0), Bly (3-0) and Nerchio (3-1), and the German should be considered for a top place in this tournament as well.
Even though Zanster’s potential wasn’t realised at DreamHack as he couldn’t progress beyond the group stage, the 17-year-old Swede has an abundance of talent (#13 in Europe, 62.34% win rate) and is hungry to prove himself.
Dayshy (#85 in Europe, 55.56% win rate) and Guru (#67 Europe, 60.69% win rate) are most likely to find this group too much of a challenge.
| Group D | |
| 1. | PtitDrogo |
| 2. | Lambo |
| 3. | Scarlett |
| 4. | DeMuslim |
Lambo (#38 in Europe, 63.33% win rate) has been performing very well recently, making it out of the group stage at DreamHack, and has every chance to go through here too.
DeMuslim will step out of the caster’s chair and test his skills once more here. Although he has been practicing, he will face stern opposition from the rest of the group. He is famous for his macro late game, but this is well known to his opponents and so may have little overall effect.
Scarlett, the only lady participating in the tournament, is a highly talented Canadian player and ranked #12 in Europe. She is back on track after a year of turbulence and thoughts about retirement. Her best matchup is versus Terran (66.67% win rate) and DeMuslim will certainly struggle against her.
Even though PtitDrogo (#17 in Europe) struggled initially after the release of LotV, he has since become more accustomed to it and has returned to being one of the best Protosses in Europe. His current stats might not show it (60.39% win rate), but he has upped his game a lot lately so has the potential to win this group based on momentum alone.
| Group E | |
| 1. | Lilbow |
| 2. | Hyun |
| 3. | uThermal |
| 4. | Miniraser |
While quite an all-round player, uThermal is good in TvP (62.27% win rate), so Lilbow will have a hard match against him. He has also been making very good use of the Liberators against Zerg and there are two of them here.
Lilbow (#9 in Europe) has been playing rather disappointingly of late, despite the solid reputation that he built at the last Blizzcon for being the only European among Koreans to make it to the round of 16. Branded as a favourite, he was eliminated at the group stage in DreamHack. Still, he is a top European player and is highly motivated to demonstrate the superiority of his Stalkers. uThermal should be a good opponent for him as TvP is his best matchup (80.95% win rate in the last 39 games) but uThermal is strong with TvP too.
Hyun is not in great shape and playing LotV has been a frustrating experience for him so far. His current form is far from matching a player of his rank (55.78% win rate from 147 games). Nevertheless, he is currently ranked #29 in the world and #26 in South Korea and can always pose a significant challenge.
Miniraser, who is currently #162 in the world and lost two best-of-one matches in Nation Wars III will have trouble in the company of these players.
| Group F | |
| 1. | MC |
| 2. | Bly |
| 3. | Harstem |
| 4. | Bunny |
MC needs no introduction as he is one of the most successful StarCraft 2 players of all time. His name alone is enough to put him in contention for a top place at the tournament. The winner of six GSLs, as well as three HomeStory cups (two successively) will certainly feel at home and despite his recent absence from the scene, he is easily one of the favourites to win the tournament. He came out of retirement in August 2015 and has been practicing in LotV. There is hardly a better scene for him to return to where he belongs – at the very top.
Although a top European player (#12 in Europe), Bunny has been disappointing recently. He was eliminated at the group stage in DreamHack and while impressive in the ladder (with a 60% win rate), he hasn’t convinced that he will have enough to progress here.
Bly (#11 in Europe), on the other hand, reached the last eight at DreamHack and demonstrated some strong play.
Harstem’s (#39 in Europe) trip to Korea has been much talked about, but will it be enough for him to contest a place in the second phase? He will have to beat Bly for that.
| Group G | |
| 1. | Elazer |
| 2. | HeRoMaRinE |
| 3. | Rotterdam |
| 4. | NoRegreT |
Group G is certainly one of the easiest groups in the tournament, and the two players that stand out are Elazer and HeRoMaRinE.
The young Polish player (#23 in Europe) has been impressive lately, reaching the playoff stages of the winter DreamHack. He is doing very well in the ladder (with a 67.14% win rate) and should be able to qualify from this group, especially in the company of the other three players.
HeRoMaRinE is currently ranked the #2 German player behind ShoWTimE and is in great form (72.73% win rate, but over a rather small number of games, 24/33). He has been performing very well on the German scene, with two second places and one win from the three ESLs this year. It is now time for him to show what he can do on the international stage.
Rotterdam is another caster who turns his hand to playing in this tournament and has since admitted that he hasn’t practiced much. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that he will progress.
Although NoRegret (#79 in Europe) is an interesting and aggressive Terran, he may struggle here as this is his first international tournament. On the other hand, he could surprise as his opponents may not know what to expect.
| Group H | |
| 1. | Snute |
| 2. | MMA |
| 3. | GunGFuBanDa |
| 4. | Stephano |
If there is another player in this tournament who can be put on a par with MC, it is MMA. The two of them have had numerous thrilling encounters, quite a few of which have been in the finals of some of the most prestigious tournaments. It is known that MMA has practiced hard on LotV, although he has been away for a while from the big game. MMA and Snute know each other well as they are rivals, with MMA having won 68.42% or 13 matches, losing only 6 against the Norwegian.
However, given the current form of the players, Snute (#4 in Europe) might prove more of a challenge for the Korean. Snute likes to practice counter-play against his opponent’s style. He was one of the first who amassed more than 600 games in the first days of the release of LotV, but he disappointed in DreamHack by not being able to qualify.
GunGFuBanDa is a young German player who has been rapidly climbing up the ladder (#26 in Europe). His lack of experience in international tournaments at this stage might prove too much of an obstacle though.
A lot can be said about Stephano (#49 in Europe), who was once one of the best European players who could match any Korean gamer. He has been practicing hard recently, but hasn’t participated in any significant tournaments, so it is rather difficult to say how far he could go.
