RICHARD LEWIS’ DOTA2 FRANKFURT MAJOR PREVIEW
Dota 2’s first ever major is less than a week away. Despite the fact that the game’s competitive scene has already shattered records this year with its incredible 18 million dollar marquee event The International, the Frankfurt Major is no slouch in either payout nor the level of competition. 3 million dollars will be distributed between sixteen of the best teams in the world who will be battling for close to two weeks in Europe this week.
But exactly which teams are favored to take the lion’s share of the 3 million?
FAVORITES
“Despite Team Secret’s track-record at the year’s biggest events being lackluster for a team containing such an amount of stars, there is little to no contest about Secret being the team of the year in Dota 2.”
After having massively restructured their roster, which only saw Clement “Puppey” Ivanov remain as the team’s sole original member, following their dismal top 8 finish at this year’s iteration of The International, Secret has attended three stacked LAN tournaments where they’ve won two of them and placed, at worst, second at the third one. When one also considers the level of their competition one can’t help but marvel at how rapid their ascension has been.
The three LANs in question have been ESL One New York, MLG World Championship and Nanyang Dota 2 Championship. Despite faltering in their New York debut, the loss was an unexpected one as the Eastern Europeans of Vega Squadron displayed a form which hasn’t been seen since their victory in the Madison Square Theatre. The two following tournaments have however painted a very different picture of the current Secret. Whilst the outright dominance of their previous line-up, which would very rarely drop a series at all, isn’t present in the current day Secret which quite regularly is put in dire situations (losing to CDEC 2-0 as well as almost losing out to OG at the MLG World Final) coupled with a difficulty of stemming off early aggression, the aspect that has seen this European squad reach the top once again lies in the teamwork.
One of the clearest aspects of this is in the case of the team’s main carry; Jacky “EternaLEnVy” Mao. Often ridiculed for what could only be considered outrageous tactical decisions in his previous team Cloud9, he is no longer burdened by assuming the role as leader of this squad and is instead asked to solely focus on playing his part within the team. The difference between the two teams couldn’t be clearer, as Mao’s play seems to have reached new heights and is sometimes strong enough to keep his team in games that look all but over, which is very based on the fact that he’s allowed to farm as efficiently as he desires without impacting his team negatively, something that would constantly happen on C9.
Instead all three core players (EternaLEnVy, w33 and MiSerY) are being granted all the resources they need to have an impact throughout the games they play.
“This Team Secret is not one made up of superstars. Instead, this iteration seems to have been created with the sole aim of creating an almost archetypal blueprint of how to create a perfectly balanced team in regards to its players where even their lowest form will be high enough to see them persevere in the end.”
With their three top 2 placements in the baggage as well against all the elite teams currently in Dota 2, Secret is the safest bet to make going into the game’s inaugural major.
All eyes were centered on what the Chinese off-season would bring to the table. In previous years close to no Chinese team escaped the temptation of replacing at least two players in their rosters as new super teams looked to be created. This year was, however, a little different if one is to look at Vici Gaming, this year’s top performing Asian powerhouse.
Rather than switch out a considerable amount of their roster, they instead made one gigantic acquisition: Recruiting Xu “BurNIng” Xhilei, the face of the franchise in China and one of the most prolific Dota pros of all time. Considered one of the players that defined the old Chinese style of playing long drawn out games while acquiring resources from the map, rather than focus on skirmishes and kills, the BurNIng we see today is able to fight just as well as he’s capable of stalling games on scaling heroes. In a way they are reminiscent of DK, the super team BurNIng and offlaner Daryl “iceiceice” Koh were part of in 2014, which capitalized on the diversity of their players strengths and could play almost any style through their experience and deep hero pools.
“Despite the relatively few games they have played on LAN following TI5, their LAN-debut in Singapore during the Nanyang Dota 2 Championship displayed that they are easily the one team, aside from Vega, to be able to combat Secret just fine, as they squared off in a total of seven games at the event.”
Whilst this sounds incredible on paper, the raw stats are less than telling of just how close these games were. Despite Vici only managing to win two games out of these seven, one cannot underestimate just how neck and neck these confrontations truly were, as they went back and forth in several 50+ minute maps in the riveting grand finals which ultimately went the way of Secret.
Vici is also one of few teams where their true super star comes in the shape of their support. Xu “fy” Linsen has shown throughout 2014 and 2015 to be one of the best players to have ever played the game, and can easily tip the scale of battle. It must however be noted, that despite Linsen’s incredible abilities one can also pinpoint several losses the team has endured throughout the year by providing too much space to the support player and seen little return, effectively making meagre contributions despite being provided with a ton of space which hampered his team mates.
“Whilst their team may not be as balanced as their European rivals in Secret, one can’t discount the level of the Chinese superstars and could easily exit the major as the champions.”
Despite being the reigning TI-champions, it isn’t hard to imagine why they haven’t been able to claim another title since becoming the de facto top earners in all of esports this august, as they are probably the top team that made the biggest changes following their triumph in Seattle. Their to replace famed support player Kurtis “Aui_2000” Ling and transition hard carry Clinton “Fear” Loomis in order to facilitate the return of Artour “Arteezy” Babaev.
The biggest issue displayed so far of this new EG roster is the in-game relationship of the two superstars Arteezy and SumaiL. Looking back, when Fear was the team’s carry, we saw that both Arteezy and SumaiL were able to play up to their expected levels with little to no issue. So far this has not been the case since Babaev’s return, which is unsurprising as both of the team’s main cores have grown accustomed to being the centerpiece of their respective teams throughout 2015. If these issues have been solved heading into Frankfurt and they get to display their full potential there may be little standing in the way of EG claiming their third million dollar title of the year.
Even in the above paragraph it may sound harsh to say that they haven’t “lived up” to any expectation placed upon them, we can see that the team lives off of its old habits of starting each tournament “slow” and successively building up to start fighting for whatever title they are competing for, which can be seen in the two tournaments they have participated in with this line-up as they went out almost immediately in the single-elimination bracket of ESL One New York, yet managed to attain a respectable second place finish at the MLG World Championship.
“It must also be mentioned that the EG of 2015 has been in contrast to the previous year shown more inconsistency. In comparison to their 14 top 4 finishes in their debut year, EG have on top of attending less events twice exited tournaments in last place. On the flipside however, they have won every single million dollar event of the year so far, which makes it hard to not pen EG as one of the potential favorites to win the Frankfurt Major.”
The TI-winning squad chose to forego attending the Nanyang Dota 2 Championship in favour of practicing before their 10 day campaign in Frankfurt. If we are to see an EG that have managed to iron out any issues in regards to player synergy or internal clashes, EG should be considered contenders.
OTHER CONTENDERS
The Eastern European squad which shocked the world when they eliminated tournament favourites Secret from TI5 has consistently proven to have what it takes to surprise the general audience. This strength of theirs seems to only be present in short bursts however, which makes it seem as if the stars must truly align for them to take a shot at winning in Frankfurt.
One of the perfect examples of this is their journey in Seattle (TI), as they started the tournament’s playoffs stage in the lower bracket following a monumental failure in their group’s tiebreaker, which saw them defeated by countrymen Empire, who would finish the tournament in 12th place. Once in the playoffs, they dispatched Fnatic and compLexity Gaming, which set up their now infamous 2-1 victory over Secret.
Their triumph was however not enough to stem the tides against eventual 3rd place finishers LGD, who ended the Eastern European’s dreams in a 2-0 clean up. Similarly they displayed this tendency as recently as the end of October at the aforementioned Nanyang Dota 2 Championship. There they followed up a solid group stage with three straight losses, two to Secret, and were finally dismantled by a rather inexperienced Liquid line-up, similarly to their run at this year’s ESL One Frankfurt event where they displayed exceptional form in the tournament’s pre-seeding bracket, only to get completely dismantled in the playoffs.
Again I stress that this is prefaced of the fact that their upset-potential may be one of the biggest of all the sixteen teams in attendance. The centrepiece of the quintet, Sergey “God” Bragin has firmly solidified his grip as the prime midlaner in Eastern Europe, and the young support Ilya “lil” Ilyuk has time and time displayed his capabilities on heroes such as Rubick, Ancient Apparition and most notably Visage.
“With all this said, it would be hard to see them proceed to finals of the Frankfurt Major, even less so to win it. But if there’s one team that can surprise, it’s VP.”
Just like the team the former Chinese giants fielded at TI5, the current EHOME is a very mixed bag in terms of what players make up its five man roster. In essence, this iteration of EHOME is the biggest concentration of untested Chinese talent which is still currently managing to perform on a top international level. This post-TI season has been very unique in the sense that teams have started to actively search out new up and coming players rather than recycle their old talent, which was evident in the earlier EHOME line-up that participated at TI5, where their rookie carry Zyf delivered several knock-out performances.
One of the biggest points of interests in this team is there desire to experiment in drafts, something that saw them almost make it to the recently concluded Nanyang finals, as they managed to narrowly fall to Vici in the lower bracket finals. Picks like Ursa for Chen “Cty” Tianyu and Phoenix for Hu “KaKa” Liangzhi have proved to be very effective and pose an incredible threat for teams who may underestimate them or come unprepared.
Cty has especially come a long way this past year, as he was for the longest period of time considered one of the biggest talents in China, but who’s reputation of bad temperament and propensity for titling made him a massive risk to recruit. Since his time on EHOME however he appears to have turned a new leaf and will be one of the main players to keep an eye on during the tournament.
Vega’s unexpected triumph at ESL One New York was truly exceptional. The team that came just short from playing at TI5 following a grueling defeat to eventual finalists CDEC stormed out the gates in the big apple and showcased a penchant for aggression, bolstered off the strength of the support-duo.
Since then the surprise victors haven’t had the opportunity to attend any LAN tournaments which makes it hard to evaluate exactly what to expect of them going into Frankfurt. It is undeniable that the form they displayed in New York was that of a solid team, but perhaps some doubt is warranted. After all, on their way to the trophy we saw them defeat three teams playing on LAN together for the first time in EG, Invictus Gaming (who participated with a stand-in) and finally Secret in the tournament’s final which had to be reduced to a BO3 due to time constraints.
The seeds of their success is still evident however, the positioning of the aforementioned supports is stellar and Vladimir “No[o]ne” Minenko is an upcoming star in his own region. Vega are also one of the professional teams that play the most games: Leading up to TI5, which they fell just short of qualifying for, they were the team that had participated in the largest amount of competitive games, and had just before their victory-lap at ESL One New York played the most during the post-TI period. This also lets them adapt to any changes in the meta-game very efficiently.
The question, and burden of their success, is now to see if they can live up to it on LAN once again.
The performance expected of the TI-finalists CDEC has not really gone as most would have expected. Whilst their world famous coordination and early aggression still sets them above a majority of the team’s attending the Frankfurt Major, it can’t be understated how underwhelming their post-TI performance has been. Returning to the stage at ESL One New York, we saw them run practically identical strategies to the ones they had used two months earlier in Seattle. Their run in New York did help them however at the MLG World Finals where they impressed by defeating Secret 2-0 in the group stage, but were eliminated in 3rd/4th place after losing to EG.
“Whilst this may initially sound like a team looking to find their groove once again, the worrying signs are hard to ignore after attending the Nanyang Dota 2 Championship where they delivered an incredibly lackluster performance in the group stage which was followed by being eliminated in second-to-last place by EHOME.”
These results, however disappointing, may come as a sign of the team trying to figure out their footing once again. The failure at Nanyang however looms heavily above them as one of their worst results to-date, which occurring so close to the major may have been an echo of things to come.
It should be noted that despite all their shortcomings, they still are one of the best early team fighting teams around, where each member is more than eager to join the fight with near instant teleports. Combine their eagerness to fight still makes Liu “garder” Xinzhous Bounty Hunter an almost guaranteed ban. Whilst things so far have not looked great for the TI-finalists, they managed to shock the world once before. This is their time to show that they can do it again.
DARK HORSES
OG has made the absolute most of the short time they have been together. The team flew over its current offlaner David “MoonMeander” Tan from Canada in order to maximize their practice and has quickly managed to reach the top of the European circuit despite fielding two members who have not been used to playing at the highest level of competitive Dota in hard carry Amer “Miracle-” al-Barqawi and support Andreas “Cr1t-” Franck Nielsen.
Whilst the team has only attended one LAN so far, the MLG World Championship, their performance at the event was very impressive as they defeated EG as well as Virtus.pro in the group stage. Their run was cut short in the semi-finals as eventual winners Team Secret defeated them in a hard fought 2-1 series.
The primary cogs of the machinery so far in OG are their strategies, the synergy of their support-duo, which consists of cr1t- and Fly, and last but not least the extreme talent of their carry Miracle-.
Favoring push-oriented strategies their drafts very often lean on the success of Miracle- and n0tail’s performances, often drafting greedy cores and favoring duo-lanes in order to ensure their main cores gain the most favorable starts.
One of the most notable things about OG however is the fact that n0tail has transitioned from his native support role into mid. Whilst his play initially left a lot to be desired, he has since started delivering solid performances, his Beastmaster is a particularly strong hero in his arsenal, and a pick that they like to combine with pushing heroes such as cr1t’s stellar Jakiro.
“The team is eventually rounded off perfectly by the explosiveness of newcomer Miracle- whom they can draft a wide variety of picks, most recently the very unusual Invoker, to extreme success. The right mix of hunger and team cohesion seems to be what puts OG above the rest, and will make them one of the new teams to keep an eye on going into Frankfurt.”
In the span between 2013-2014 Alliance went from being considered the best team in the world to nothing but abject failures. Add on another year of suffering for faithful fans and you’d be considered crazy for suggesting they would ever look like a team contending for any kind of title a mere three months ago. But with the return of Gustav “s4” Magnusson and the addition of HoN-veteran Johan “Nuts” Åström, things haven’t looked as bright for Alliance in close to two years.
Alliance, like CDEC in a sense, can easily be considered a team stuck in the past.
One of the main reasons behind their newfound success can probably be found in the fact that, in general, s4 is not a mid player in the w33 or SumaiL sense, where he is either close to lining his coffers as much as the main carry. In s4’s case he is statistically less rich than both Jonathan “Loda” Berg and offlaner Henrik “AdmiralBulldog” Ahnberg, which provides them both with the amount of space and resources to justify his selflessness.
The main thing that one must question is how this roster is expected to transition onto LAN. Of course, we do still find four TI-winners amongst their ranks so calling them inexperienced would not be fair. Also, despite pointing out that s4’s selflessness is one a probable factor behind their success, any potential greed from the midlaner may topple their success given the two other core’s strong desire to farm.
One must also pay attention to Nuts, who as of writing, grades very low in terms of hero diversity as the majority of his games with the team have been on Tusk. Whilst it’s worked in a majority of their games, targeting his most played hero does seem like a rather obvious way to put the team on edge.
Overall Alliance are looking like a team reborn. The question now is if they can retain the form and balance they have displayed so far online, and how they will fair against the undisputed top of the Dota 2 elite.
BEST OF THE REST
Following a disappointing 2015, the TI4-winners seem to have followed Alliance’s lead and reintroduced a familiar face to their line-up as Chen “Hao” Zhihao once again fights under the Newbee banner. Whilst his return seems to have put his team on the right track, it is hard to erase the memories of this past year which saw Newbee exit both million dollar events of the year in last place.
Despite this their recent form has been impressive, especially that of midlaner Zhang “Mu” Pan who dominated in the online qualifiers of the upcoming The Summit 4 LAN in Los Angeles. Their only merits so far on 6.85 are however limited to strictly online play, which makes it hard to predict which Newbee we will see in Frankfurt. Whether it’s the world beaters of 2014, or the deadbeats of 2015 will soon be determined.
Similarly to their former sister team in CDEC, LGD have yet to show up massively in any tournament following TI5. Their shortcomings are due to many other reasons however, and can be attributed mostly to the departure of captain Zhang “xiao8” Ning and former offlaner Yao “Yao” Zhengzheng. Whilst Bai “rOtk” Fan has since been given the reins to the team, they have yet to come into their own and look incredibly unconvincing heading into Frankfurt.
This is to be expected when one of the greatest captains of all time decides to bow out, and whilst current captain rOtk is attempting to interject his own aggressive style of play to LGD it does currently not seem to be doing the trick. At the MLG World Championship in particular, we saw how LGD were a mixed bag where they either got steamrolled by Virtus.pro or played sloppily versus EG, costing them the series.
This is not to say that we should not be surprised if this major can be the final piece of the puzzle for the struggling giants. Especially considering that the breakout player of TI5 (aside from CDEC’s dream run) in Lu “Maybe” Yao still remains on the team and has yet to show any kind of slacking shape.
“One thing that may be their saving grace is that LGD has always been slow to adapt to new metagames, but the question is if they have been given enough time to adapt for one of the biggest Dota events of all time, or if they will disappoint.”
UPSET POTENTIAL
“The first team from the Philippines to have ever qualified for a Valve-sponsored event are looking like the biggest fish in a small pond going into the Frankfurt Major.”
Having been able to trounce Fnatic in a number of regional tournaments and seen their carry Carlo “Kuku” Palad in particular impress. How far this will take them is, however, uncertain. Their international LAN-debut saw them crash badly in the group stage at Nanyang with only one map to their name.
Despite these shortcomings this Mineski roster is the first one that has the potential to cause any kind of potential international impact on an international level. For once the team is balanced in the sense that all five players are playing up to a high level, something that has not been the case with previous Mineski line-ups which centered almost exclusively around catering to their star players. Now, with stars on the team as well as reliable supports their chances are looking the best they have ever done.
After having come out the gates as the best SEA team following the post-TI5 shuffle things appear to have gone downhill for international roster of Fnatic. Recently they have been overcome by Mineski as the best in their region, and shared a similar fate to them as they also exited the Nanyang groupstage in last place.
Something the team recently has seemed to employ in order to combat their recent dip is to consistently role-swap. Midlane legend Chai “Mushi” Yee Fung has been seen playing support rather than his accustomed lane recently, which sees Chong “Ohaiyo” Xin Khoo play mid at times. Whether this is a sign of internal struggles and frustration or a desire to employ strategic diversity is currently a toss-up. Given recent results however, it feels rather safe to assume that Fnatic will not be one of the team’s to make an impact at this major.
The drop-off between best and second best in North America is probably one of the biggest disparities of any competitive region in Dota 2. Showcasing their ability to smash any kind of domestic opposition in the myriad of online qualifiers following TI5, Cloud9 were utterly smashed when they participated at the MLG World Championship as they went down to both CDEC 2-1, as well a in particularly poor performing MVP.Phoenix.
The things currently going in the favor of this squad are two notable players in the shape of captain Theeban “1437” Siiva and Ravi “Ritsu” Kodippili. 1437’s leadership is one of the obvious things that appears to have sent Cloud9 on their way to the top of north America as their decision making as well as drafts have shown to be very competent against most other teams in the region.
Ritsu is also a player to keep an extra eye on, as several of his performances on heroes like Anti-Mage and Ember Spirit shows he’s an exceptional player with a very high skill ceiling. The team has to aid him in order to attain said success, and is C9’s best chance at making an impact at the major.
WON’T MAKE IT OUT THE GROUPS
Newbee’s youth squad will be attending the event as replacements for Invictus Gaming, who were unable to secure a visa for one of their players. They have shown promise amongst other tier 2 teams and managed to snag two second place finishes in smaller Chinese tournaments just before TI5.
It should also be noted that given china’s fierce reputation in Dota 2 that a gathering of unproven talent in China could hypothetically be able to surprise against teams who choose to not take them as a serious threat.
Despite this, this is their first international LAN. It would not be surprising to see the gang of youngsters exit the tournament in a last place finish.
The South American firebrands will be one of the teams to watch following their obliteration of several of the more established teams in the north American online qualifier for the major. One of the high points of this team’s run was definitely seeing the performances of midlaner Juan “Atun” Ochoa, who’s Templar Assassin in particular stood out as being nothing short of amazing.
Odds are however that their in-game antics such as taunting their opponents will be what we remember this squad for rather than their actual performance as a lack of experience on LAN as well as never having competed against int
Dafabet is offering odds on the Frankfurt Major.
About the author:
Richard Lewis is a legendary eSports journalist known for his investigative style; he is also a regular contributor to The Daily Dot. Richard hosts two online talk shows: Trash Talk and First Blood. The former provides Sports enthusiasts with the opportunity call in and air their opinions on eSports and the latter features an additional guest every week to discuss news and the current state of the scene. You can follow Richard on Twitter and view his videos on YouTube.
